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A more hostile atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea has led tropical weather experts at Colorado State University (CSU) to slightly reduce their hurricane forecast for the remainder of the 2025 season.
The Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team now estimate that the following will be formed 16 named storms through the end of the year, down slightly from the 17 originally forecast. Even so, this figure remains above the historical average of just over 14 storms. Of those 16, eight could reach hurricane strengthThe number of new plants is nine, compared to the nine initially planned.
So far, in the Atlantic basin the following have already been formed three tropical stormsbut no hurricane.
"The main reason for this slight reduction in the forecast is the high levels of wind shear observed and predicted in the Caribbean," Klotzbach explained in the update released by his team in July.
The wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with altitude, and when the altitude is very high, it can inhibit the development of tropical cyclones.
"High shears in June and July are usually associated with less active seasons," the researcher added.
On the other hand, the water temperatures in the central and eastern Atlantic continue to be slightly above average, although colder than last year's record. In the Pacific Oceantemperatures remain close to the average, which indicates a state of neutralwithout El Niño or La Niña conditions.
Klotzbach pointed out that, historically, when there is a neutral cycle in the Pacific combined with warm waters in the AtlanticThe formation of tropical cyclones is usually favored.
According to their estimates:
- There is a 48% probability of a hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast this year (slightly above the historical 43%).
- 25% of probability impact on the east coast.
- 31% probability impact on the Gulf Coast.
- And a 53% probability of a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) passing through the Caribbean, above the 47% average.
Klotzbach reminded that even if the season stays within an average range, just one hurricane making landfall is enough to turn it into an active season..
Even less intense storms can cause significant impacts. This was the case recently for the Tropical Storm Chantalwhich made landfall in South Carolina as a weak system, but it caused severe flooding in central North Carolina and left at least one fatality.
"Every season must be prepared for in earnest, regardless of how many storms are forecast," Klotzbach concluded.
🌪️ RememberHurricane season runs from June to November. Stay informed on Weather Channel to follow the evolution of the Atlantic and prepare for any threat.
