A tropical depression or Tropical Storm Melissa will likely form in the Caribbean as the system designated "Invest 98L" begins to organize.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) again increased the chances of development of the system known as Invest 98L, which circles around the Windward Islands, and forecasters indicate that it could become our next tropical depression or tropical storm Melissa in the next few days as it enters the Caribbean.
The term "invest" is used by the NHC to identify atmospheric disturbances that it is investigating for possible development into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. In addition, this designation allows for the application of special hurricane forecast computer models.
According to the NHC, recent wind data by satellite and observations surface data indicate that Invest 98L currently crosses the Windward Islands, but still lacks a closed circulation.
However, both radar and satellite imagery have indicated that storm activity associated with this tropical wave is beginning to show signs of organization.
Invest 98L is moving rapidly westward between 20 and 25 mph (≈32-40 km/h), which could limit its development over the next day or two.
However, environmental conditions are expected to improve for development as the system slows over the Caribbean towards the middle of the week.
"One set of forecasts calls for the system to strengthen into a tropical storm or even Hurricane Melissa and then move north or northeast toward the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and/or nearby islands," a hurricane specialist said. "Another set of forecasts keeps it weak and predicts it could remain stalled in the Caribbean for days - perhaps well into next week or more."
The NHC commented that a tropical depression is very likely to form by mid to late this week in the central Caribbean.
Regardless of its development, heavy rains and gusty winds are expected in some areas of the Windward and Leeward Islands until Monday morning.
If Invest 98L becomes Tropical Storm or Hurricane Melissa, it will be the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
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